Free Agency Hypotheticals

There are many elements that are in play when predicting the worth of a free agent. One has to look at the player’s track record, age, health situation, recent numbers and countless other variables.

Please don't call them Twinkies.

With that said, here is what I would say these Minnesota Twins would be worth on this year’s free agent market.

Phil Hughes – After signing a three-year deal with the Twins as a free agent last year, Hughes had a breakout season in 2014.

The right-hander threw 209 innings with 186 strikeouts. While his 3.52 ERA, though respectable, doesn’t stand out in a crowd, his peripheral numbers suggest this figure should be much lower.

Fielding Independent Pitching, the basis for how effectively a pitcher prevents hits and walks while maximizing strikeouts, is the best measure for how to truly judge the worth of a pitcher.

Hughes’ FIP in 2014 was a stellar 2.65.

Can Hughes build off of his brilliant Minnesota debut?

To translate that into a free-agency lens, it was lower than Jon Lester’s (2.80), who just signed a six-year deal with the Chicago Cubs worth $155 million.

While Lester certainly has a better track record than Hughes, the annual value of this type of pitcher is comparable.

Price tag for Phil Hughes: $85 million, five-year contract.

Glen Perkins – Even with a rough, injury-limited final month of the 2014 season, Perk showed that he is a proven closer.

The hometown lefty still threw fire in clutch situations, hitting 97 MPH on the radar while closing out the All-Star game last July.

Glen Perkins: Proven Closer.

One would think that without that sore shoulder hampering his performance in August and September, Perkins would have had some of the best numbers among relievers in the American League.

Keeping his health situation in mind, the Twins’ closer would still presumably command a decent haul in free agency.

Price tag for Glen Perkins: $28 million, three-year contract with an option for a fourth year based on performance.

Trevor Plouffe – The Twins’ third-baseman quietly had a very productive season in 2014.

Though he hasn’t displayed the power that fans saw in 2012 when he hit 24 homeruns, he has maintained solid offensive numbers.

Not to mention, his defense at third base (once considered to be the thorn in his side) has improved considerably.

Plouuuuuuuuffffeeee

His dWAR, a figure that measures a player’s Wins Above a Replacement-level player based on defensive metrics, pegged his 2014 campaign as a full win above average.

That makes Plouffe worth roughly $5 million dollars on his defense alone.

With another step up in 2015, he could easily establish himself as one of the better third-baseman in the AL.

Price tag for Trevor Plouffe: $42 million, four-year contract.

Brian Dozier – Though the young infielder is still pre-arbitration eligible, meaning he has less than three full seasons of major league experience, one cannot ignore his performance over that time.

Dozier has seen improvement in most of his stats with each year including games played, hits, homeruns, runs batted in, stolen bases and on-base percentage.

Not to mention, he has established himself as one of the best infield defenders in the league over the past year.

Brian Dozier: Great player, better hair.

If Dozier takes a similar step forward in 2015, his offensive numbers would look something like this:

.250/.360/.435

25 HR

80 RBI

28 SB

That would surely be All-Star worthy play for a player who is about to enter the prime age for professional athletes.

Price tag for Brian Dozier: $56 million, five-year contract with performance-based bonuses.

Joe Mauer – Who would have thought that the face of the franchise would be the hardest player to peg in regards to worth?

Since Joe had such a head-scratcher of a season in 2014, let’s just look at a simple pros vs. cons list.

Pros: Joe has a Hall-of-Fame considerable track record, with well-above average seasons every year except 2011 and 2014.

One could make the argument that, at age 32, Mauer still has a lot of gas left in the tank.

Though his catching days are behind him, he can still play first base, third base and even right field if needed, though the argument could be made that it would be best for him to focus on just one of those positions.

Above Average Joe

Cons: Joe was sidelined by injuries yet again in 2014. Though there is not much anybody can do for an oblique strain, it was certainly bothersome for fans to see Joe play in only 120 games.

Also, Mauer is now five years separated from his MVP season in 2009 when he crushed 28 homeruns. Since then, he has only averaged seven per year.

Though power has never been a priority with Joe, it is still something to consider when measuring a player’s overall worth.

Price tag for Joe Mauer: $60 million, four-year contract with options for a fifth and sixth year based on performance. 

Why the Ervin Santana Signing Makes a Ton of Sense

For the second season in a row, the Minnesota Twins have signed a right-handed starting pitcher to the most expensive free agent deal in franchise history.
Last week, Terry Ryan and his crew agreed to sign Ervin Santana to a four-year deal worth at least $55 million, with options for a fourth and fifth year.

Ervin "Magic" Santana

While some Twins fans may be skeptical to dish out this kind of money while the team tries to rebuild after four seasons of 90 or more losses, here are some quick hits as to why this deal could be a great fit for both sides.

• Santana has pitched at least 195 innings in five of the last seven seasons, surpassing that mark in both of the last two years. This suggests that he is a durable innings eater who has had good health for the most part. 
• Santana had 179 strikeouts last season, more than anyone in the Twins rotation not named Phil Hughes (186). He still has an electric slider and good movement on his fastball, which should benefit the pitch-to-contact heavy Twins rotation. 
• Hughes put together an excellent season after moving from the heavy-hitting east coast to the Amarican league central division. With his excellent K/9 rate (strikeouts per nine innings) that is similar, if not better, than Hughes', Santana could see similar success this year. 
• Speaking of the AL central, Santana already made that transition when he pitched for the Kansas City Royals in 2013. That season, Santana finished with a 3.24 ERA, 211 innings pitched and 161 strikeouts. That kind of season gave him a WAR of 2.9, meaning his season-long performance led to an estimated 2.9 wins above a replacement-level player. That WAR also suggests that he was worth just under $15 million dollars that year, just above what the Twins will pay him annually for the next three to five years. 

While it is impossible to promise that Santana will live up to this new contract, his numbers suggest improvement over what the Twins would have without him.
That's the bottom line.
Sure, the Twins have finished last or near-last in the American League for the past four years, making payroll-whiners cringe when they see the team spends money on a rebuilding squad.
But if the Twins want to escape the cellar, this is exactly the kind of moves that they should be mixing in.

Smell Baseball

Minnesota, it's time to wake up and smell baseball.

Possible Trade Scenarios for the Twins

Though trades are often a risky game to play when dealing with a rebuilding club, desperate times call for desperate measures.

If there is one team that is desperate for some electricity, it is the Minnesota Twins.

Twins' GM Terry Ryan might need to swing a trade or two to get more rings.

With that said, here are some possible trade scenarios that I would love to see along with the likelihood that they could be a fit for all parties.

 

1. Twins trade 3B Trevor Plouffe to the Toronto Blue Jays for SP Mark Buehrle.

Why I like this: The Twins tried hard for Buehrle when he was a free agent after the 2011 season. Though he ended up signing a four-year deal with the Marlins, he was eventually traded to the Jays as part of a blockbuster deal. With that contract coming to an end after next season, along with a surplus of starting pitching in the Toronto system, the durable left-hander could end up being the odd-man out.

Plooooouuuuuufffffe.

Plouffe, on the other hand, is still under control for three more years. The third baseman has turned into a solid slugger over the past few seasons and actually had a higher WAR (Wins Above Replacement) than Buehrle in 2014 (3.9 for Plouffe, 3.6 for Buehrle). With uber-prospect Miguel Sano on the cusp of taking over at third base for the long haul in Minnesota, now might be the perfect time to sell Plouffe while his value is still pretty high.

Why this trade might not work: Buehrle is owed a whopping $19 million for the 2015 season, which would surely be more than the Twins would are comfortable paying for the veteran starter. The only way this would work would be if the Jays pitched in some money to help pay the remaining salary. I would imagine the Twins wouldn’t want to pay Buehrle more than $11-13 million and there is no promise that Toronto would want to throw that much financial assistance in order to make the trade happen.

Hello, old friend...

Percent chance of this deal actually happening: 35%. Though it would address needs of both teams, the money would prove to be a pretty big obstacle.

2. Twins send RP Brian Duensing to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for OF Peter Bourjos.

Why I like this: Duensing has been solid out of the Twins’ bullpen over the past two years. Bourjos, though a toolsy player who deserves every day at bats, would probably be splitting time with a few other players in St. Louis next season.

As valuable as a reliable left-handed reliever might be, the Twins are in desperate need for a center fielder now that Danny Santana is making the move to shortstop. With an above-average bullpen already and more relief prospects on their way, Minnesota can afford to trade Duensing in an effort to address their biggest need.

The solid southpaw in action.

When I say their biggest need, I’m not just talking about their outfield. If the Twins had a center fielder with plus fielding skills (a-la Peter Bourjos) their pitchers would have considerably better numbers than they have posted over the past couple of seasons based on UZR ratings (runs saved above average). Bourjos ranks in the top 10 in defensive runs saved since the start of the 2010 season. His addition would lead to fewer opposing base runners, which would lead to fewer opposing runs scored, which would hopefully lead to fewer opposing team wins.

Why this trade might not work: The Cardinals are widely regarded as the most well-rounded team in baseball. They also have one of the better farm systems, meaning there is no urgent need for them to make a move this offseason. Their bullpen may be their weakest link, and even that is in pretty good shape.

Gorgeous Bourjos.

Duensing may be an improvement over their current middle-relievers, but there is no crucial need for him on this staff.

Percent chance of this deal actually happening: 75%. Both players are pretty superfluous for the future of each team, the money is fairly comparable and both teams might benefit from a minor shakeup.

3. Twins trade OF prospect Eddie Rosario, OF Aaron Hicks and RP Brian Duensing, receive SP Alex Wood and OF Michael Saunders.

Atlanta Braves trade Wood, OF Justin Upton, receive Rosario, Duensing and SP prospect James Paxton

Seattle Mariners trade Paxton and Saunders, receive Upton and Hicks.

Why I like this: After his excellent stretch in this year’s Arizona Fall League, Rosario’s stock has never been higher. If the Twins were to give him up along with a reliable southpaw reliever such as Duensing and a young speedster in Hicks, it could net them Wood, who has been stellar for the Braves over his first two seasons and is controlled for at least five more years. They would also net Saunders who seemed to finally find his groove in Seattle last year and is under team control for two more years.

Rosario, possibly the Twins' best trade chip.

Though Atlanta would be giving up their promising young pitcher and one of the game’s best hitters, they would be acquiring two top-prospects and a solid reliever to boot. They would also clear the money that would be owed to Upton.

Alex Wood, under control through the 2019 season.

Since Seattle is in win-now mode, they would get a power bat (Upton) to pair with Robinson Cano in the middle of their order and a former top-prospect who could use a change of scenery (Hicks). Hicks could also be a safety net in case Seattle can’t resign Upton or OF Austin Jackson, both of whom are set to hit free agency after next season.

Why this trade might not work: To put it simply, a lot of moves would need to happen before these clubs would even think about making this trade. Atlanta would probably need to sign one of the top free agent starters such as Jon Lester (who they have been in contact with this week), Seattle would want to sign another heavy-hitting free agent such as Nelson Cruz or Hanley Ramirez and the Twins would need more confidence in who they have in the outfield.

Percent chance of this deal actually happening: 20%. This one is certainly a long-shot, but it’s always fun to dream up three-way trades. If a few dominoes start falling, who knows what could happen?

Free Agency Targets for the Twins

The Minnesota Twins are in a very delicate stage of their development as they come off of their fourth consecutive season of 92 or more losses. Now that they have hired a new manager to captain their sinking ship, they need more deckhands to grab an ore.

With that said, here are my picks for who the Twins should target in free agency and how they would contribute to our rebuilding team.

Captain Molitor

Outfield

So far, Oswaldo Arcia is the only outfielder that the Twins have penciled into their 2015 roster. Though he has had some defensive trouble to start his career (ranked seventh-worst out of all outfielders in defensive wins above replacement last year), he could adapt as he gains more experience. One thing is certain - he needs regular at-bats if he is going to develop into the stud hitter that everybody wants him to be.

Oswaldo Ar-SEE-YA-LATER

As I wrote in a blog post a few weeks ago, Torii Hunter makes a lot of sense for the Twins. Not only would he bring a much-needed clubhouse presence, but he would add above-average offense at a stopgap position until some of the Twins’ highly-touted prospects are ready to take over.

With Hunter signed on to play right field on a one or two year deal worth around $9-10 million annually, Arcia could move over to left field where his defensive capabilities might actually suit him better.

Time to bring our friend home 

If the Twins want to think out of the box they should consider ponying up for Cuban-defector Yasmany Tomas. Though he would most likely require a huge contract, the powerful slugger would be yet another force in the middle of the Minnesota lineup for years to come.

Since he is only 24, Tomas might very well decide to seek a four or five year contract so that he can hit free agency in his prime. If this is the case, the Twins would be smart to offer a hefty contract worth somewhere around $60-65 million over four years. It would be the biggest free agent contract in franchise history, but considering Tomas’ upside (prodigious power) and a relatively manageable contract to trade if need be, this shouldn't be overlooked as a possibility.

Would look pretty good in a Twins uniform...

Just imagine a lineup in the not-too-distant future that looks like this:

Byron Buxton CF

Joe Mauer 1B

Miguel Sano 3B

Oswaldo Arcia RF

Yasmany Tomas LF

Kenny Vargas DH

Brian Dozier 2B

Josmil Pinto/Kurt Suzuki C

Danny Santana SS

In theory, that lineup looks stacked. Though some of these players still have a lot to prove before they can be penciled into an everyday role, their high ceiling gives hope for something like this happening relatively soon.

See you soon, young grasshoppers.

Starting Pitcher

Honestly, I don’t think the Twins are as desperate for pitching as everybody says they are. Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson and Trevor May should be locks to make the starting rotation barring any injuries or setbacks. Beyond that, Minnesota has Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone that can round out the group, but I understand the desire to find someone a little more appealing and reliable.

With that said, I would want the Twins to go after Brandon McCarthy, who had excellent peripheral numbers last year with the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees. If they offer him a contract worth $39 over three years with a mutual option for a fourth, that could be enough to net the sturdy right-hander.

Side note: McCarthy is one of the funniest players in baseball

The Twins don’t need any more stop-gap starters. They’re beyond the point of making underwhelming, though necessary signings a-la Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey. If they can’t get the guys they really want, then they should just let the high-upside prospects like May and Alex Meyer take over.

I would be more than comfortable with a rotation of:

Phil Hughes

Brandon McCarthy

Kyle Gibson

Trevor May

Ricky Nolasco/Tommy Milone/Alex Meyer

Note: My sources are calling the Twins the dark horse in the James Shields derby. I would probably be okay with this, but I’m not optimistic about anything happening given his connection to big-market bidders like the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox. If the Twins can land him, great. If not, no big deal.

Big Game James

So, as it stands right now, the Twins are looking at an opening day patrol of about $73 million before any free agent additions and after giving reasonable arbitration bumps for their seven qualified players. If the Twins’ owners are comfortable bumping up to $90-95 million, which has been a reasonable tab in recent years, then these signings could be in play.

The Sweet Spot Awards: Part Three

PART THREE OF THREE

Most Valuable Player

American League: The pride of Anaheim can finally say that after three spectacular seasons, he has the most value in the American League. Mike Trout, the Angel’s 23 year-old phenomenon, has been nothing short of sensational. The five-tool player has astounded fans in virtually every aspect of his game and the case could be made that he hasn’t even hit his prime yet. He has led the league in runs for three straight years, has two (soon to be three) Silver Slugger awards and has captured the hearts of baseball fans everywhere. Now, after a season in which he hit for a respectable .287 average, crushed 36 homeruns, knocked in 11 runs and led all hitters with 7.9 WAR, Trout can finally take his much-deserved seat on the AL throne.

2014: Trout Season.

As fans, we all knew that this year would be special for the baseball world thanks to Derek Jeter’s season-long swan song. What we didn’t know was that we would get to experience a touching moment at the All-Star game when Jeter would be passing the figurative torch down to the new face of the game, Mike Trout. For the past 20 years, Jeter brought energy, excitement and jaw-dropping skill to America’s pastime. Now, fans get to witness a new rising-star become the face of baseball.

Passing of the torch.

Honorable mentions: Jose Abreu of the Chicago White Sox (.317 average, 36 HR), Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros (.346 average, 56 stolen bases), Victor Martinez of the Detroit Tigers (.335 average, 32 HR) and Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners (2.14 ERA, 236 innings pitched).

 

National League: Like I stated in one of my previous blog posts, I believe that Clayton Kershaw is the LeBron James of baseball. Is he the best in the game? That remains to be seen. But if he continues on the torrid pace that he has been riding the past four years, then we just might be witnessing the best that the game has to offer. Kershaw has already won the Cy Young award twice in his career and will most likely be the unanimous pick for the award this time around. He is the first pitcher to lead the league in ERA for four consecutive seasons.

Four years straight and no signs of stopping.

Some people might say that the MVP should be reserved for hitters, after all, pitchers have their own prize in the Cy Young. My issue with that argument is that the award is for the Most Valuable Player. Pitchers act as players in the game just as much as anyone else. If they hold more value than any hitter, why should they be ruled out?

Soaking it all in.

This race should be a lot closer than that of the American League. While I would cast my vote for Kershaw, Giancarlo Stanton of the Miami Marlins has had a MVP-deserving season of his own. Some might even call his numbers Trout-esque. The star outfielder hit 37 homeruns and drove in 111 runs even with an injury-shortened season. If only Stanton had played the last three and a half weeks with comparable numbers, he just might have dethroned Kershaw.

Honorable mentions: Stanton, Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates (.314 average, 25 HR, 18 stolen bases) Buster Posey of the San Francisco Giants (.311 average, 22 HR) and Justin Morneau of the Colorado Rockies (.319 average, 82 RBI).

The push for increased Spanish translation in Major League Baseball

It’s downright foolish that a billion-dollar industry wouldn't have the financial capacity to hire translators for a massive percentage of their revenue source.

Yet here we are in 2014 and Major League Baseball is in that exact situation.

According to a study conducted by the Society of American Baseball Research in 2013, 26.9 percent of all players in Major League Baseball are Latino, many of whom consider English to be their second language.

Doesn’t it seem odd that almost a third of the players in our nation’s pastime are being overlooked to this day?

Carlos Beltran, proponent for added Spanish translation resources in Major League Baseball.

This issue has come up in the past with players voicing their frustration over this troubling conundrum.

Earlier this year, Michael Pineda of the New York Yankees was ejected from a game and suspended for having an illegal substance (pine tar) on his neck. After that game, the Dominican pitcher spoke with reporters in his broken English rather than his natural Spanish.

He was clearly uncomfortable as he stumbled over the few English words that he had in his limited vocabulary.

The drama came afterwards when his teammate, the prolific Carlos Beltran who grew up in Puerto Rico, angrily brought the topic up to those same reporters.

“It’s a problem because he can’t express himself the way he wants to,” Beltran said. “At the end of the day I know it’s a difficult moment for him as a person.”

Pineda stumbling through his presser after the notorious pine tar incident.

This problem is important because we’re not just talking about some annoying little hitch in the great game of baseball. This is the dismissal of the rights of almost a third of the players in the game.

Perhaps the strangest aspect to this problem is that the Yankees employ three full-time interpreters, all for the Japanese players on their team.

Did I miss something here?

Why do Japanese-speaking players get special treatment when it comes to their manner of communication?

Do Latino-born people have an easier time learning a completely new language?

It baffles me that this is an issue. What baffles me even more is that it can be totally eliminated with one simple solution:

Major League Baseball should be required to hire at least one full-time interpreter for each team. If the players don’t want to use them, they don’t have to. But at least give them the option and resources necessary for them to be able to communicate.

Bruce Chen translating for teammate Yordano Ventura.

After looking through the depth charts of every team in baseball, it is clear that virtually every single one has at least two Latino-born players, most teams with many more.

The number of Spanish-speaking players in baseball has increased steadily over the past 40 years and that trend probably won’t end any time soon.

Baseball is a beautiful game. Everybody should feel welcome, whether that means in the ballpark or in the dugout.

It’s really hard for somebody to feel welcome when they are denied their basic right of communication.

The Sweet Spot Awards: Part Two

PART TWO OF THREE

Cy Young

American League: Those who thought the king would relinquish his throne atop the league were sorely mistaken. In a season where six starters from the AL had at least 200 strikeouts, seven with sub-3.00 ERA and 17 with at least 200 innings pitched, only three pitchers boasted all three feats: John Lester of the Boston Red Sox/Oakland Athletics, Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians and Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners.

All three would have been fine recipients for the award, but King Felix is the most deserving.

All hail the King.

Hernandez had 28 more strikeouts than Lester (248 to 220), 16 1/3 more innings pitched (236 to 219.2) and allowed 24 fewer hits throughout the season (170 to 194).

Though Kluber was closer to matching Hernandez’s success than anyone in the league, he allowed 207 hits, which ranks ninth most in the league. He made up for most of them by averaging 10.27 strikeouts per game, but that awesome K/9 rate only goes so far when it comes to determining the best pitcher.

Hats off to the Cy.

Other notable pitchers who deserve recognition include Max Scherzer of the Detroit Tigers (252 strikeouts), Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox (2.14 ERA) and Phil Hughes of the Minnesota Twins (broke the single season record for having the largest strikeout to walk ratio).

National League: How can anyone dispute the fact that Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers is the best pitcher on the planet? He led the league in countless categories including ERA, runs allowed, wins, WAR, WHIP and no-hitters (technically he’s tied in this category, but his was the most impressive).

The best. 'Nuff said.

The only argument that one could have against Kershaw winning this award is the fact that he wasn’t even among the top 20 in innings pitched. While that case is valid, it almost makes Kershaw’s season seem more impressive. The fact that he gave the rest of the league a four-week head start and then dominated nonetheless justifies his case not only for Cy Young, but Most Valuable Player as well.

Adam Wainwright had a terrific season for the St. Louis Cardinals, as did Johnny Cueto for the Cincinnati Reds. There is no doubt about that. They each had 20 wins, more than 220 innings pitched and highly-respectable ERAs. However, they were in the wrong league in the wrong season.

Everybody expected Kershaw to take home the hardware this season with his killer fastball and legendary curveball, and he exceeded those expectations. Kershaw has led the league in ERA for four consecutive seasons, something that no pitcher has ever done before. At this point, it’s almost pointless to imagine anyone else taking the National League Cy Young award next season.

Kershaw after one of the most dominant no-hitters ever pitched.

In fact, I’m putting it on record:

Clayton Kershaw is the LeBron James of baseball.