Possible Trade Scenarios for the Twins

Though trades are often a risky game to play when dealing with a rebuilding club, desperate times call for desperate measures.

If there is one team that is desperate for some electricity, it is the Minnesota Twins.

Twins' GM Terry Ryan might need to swing a trade or two to get more rings.

With that said, here are some possible trade scenarios that I would love to see along with the likelihood that they could be a fit for all parties.

 

1. Twins trade 3B Trevor Plouffe to the Toronto Blue Jays for SP Mark Buehrle.

Why I like this: The Twins tried hard for Buehrle when he was a free agent after the 2011 season. Though he ended up signing a four-year deal with the Marlins, he was eventually traded to the Jays as part of a blockbuster deal. With that contract coming to an end after next season, along with a surplus of starting pitching in the Toronto system, the durable left-hander could end up being the odd-man out.

Plooooouuuuuufffffe.

Plouffe, on the other hand, is still under control for three more years. The third baseman has turned into a solid slugger over the past few seasons and actually had a higher WAR (Wins Above Replacement) than Buehrle in 2014 (3.9 for Plouffe, 3.6 for Buehrle). With uber-prospect Miguel Sano on the cusp of taking over at third base for the long haul in Minnesota, now might be the perfect time to sell Plouffe while his value is still pretty high.

Why this trade might not work: Buehrle is owed a whopping $19 million for the 2015 season, which would surely be more than the Twins would are comfortable paying for the veteran starter. The only way this would work would be if the Jays pitched in some money to help pay the remaining salary. I would imagine the Twins wouldn’t want to pay Buehrle more than $11-13 million and there is no promise that Toronto would want to throw that much financial assistance in order to make the trade happen.

Hello, old friend...

Percent chance of this deal actually happening: 35%. Though it would address needs of both teams, the money would prove to be a pretty big obstacle.

2. Twins send RP Brian Duensing to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for OF Peter Bourjos.

Why I like this: Duensing has been solid out of the Twins’ bullpen over the past two years. Bourjos, though a toolsy player who deserves every day at bats, would probably be splitting time with a few other players in St. Louis next season.

As valuable as a reliable left-handed reliever might be, the Twins are in desperate need for a center fielder now that Danny Santana is making the move to shortstop. With an above-average bullpen already and more relief prospects on their way, Minnesota can afford to trade Duensing in an effort to address their biggest need.

The solid southpaw in action.

When I say their biggest need, I’m not just talking about their outfield. If the Twins had a center fielder with plus fielding skills (a-la Peter Bourjos) their pitchers would have considerably better numbers than they have posted over the past couple of seasons based on UZR ratings (runs saved above average). Bourjos ranks in the top 10 in defensive runs saved since the start of the 2010 season. His addition would lead to fewer opposing base runners, which would lead to fewer opposing runs scored, which would hopefully lead to fewer opposing team wins.

Why this trade might not work: The Cardinals are widely regarded as the most well-rounded team in baseball. They also have one of the better farm systems, meaning there is no urgent need for them to make a move this offseason. Their bullpen may be their weakest link, and even that is in pretty good shape.

Gorgeous Bourjos.

Duensing may be an improvement over their current middle-relievers, but there is no crucial need for him on this staff.

Percent chance of this deal actually happening: 75%. Both players are pretty superfluous for the future of each team, the money is fairly comparable and both teams might benefit from a minor shakeup.

3. Twins trade OF prospect Eddie Rosario, OF Aaron Hicks and RP Brian Duensing, receive SP Alex Wood and OF Michael Saunders.

Atlanta Braves trade Wood, OF Justin Upton, receive Rosario, Duensing and SP prospect James Paxton

Seattle Mariners trade Paxton and Saunders, receive Upton and Hicks.

Why I like this: After his excellent stretch in this year’s Arizona Fall League, Rosario’s stock has never been higher. If the Twins were to give him up along with a reliable southpaw reliever such as Duensing and a young speedster in Hicks, it could net them Wood, who has been stellar for the Braves over his first two seasons and is controlled for at least five more years. They would also net Saunders who seemed to finally find his groove in Seattle last year and is under team control for two more years.

Rosario, possibly the Twins' best trade chip.

Though Atlanta would be giving up their promising young pitcher and one of the game’s best hitters, they would be acquiring two top-prospects and a solid reliever to boot. They would also clear the money that would be owed to Upton.

Alex Wood, under control through the 2019 season.

Since Seattle is in win-now mode, they would get a power bat (Upton) to pair with Robinson Cano in the middle of their order and a former top-prospect who could use a change of scenery (Hicks). Hicks could also be a safety net in case Seattle can’t resign Upton or OF Austin Jackson, both of whom are set to hit free agency after next season.

Why this trade might not work: To put it simply, a lot of moves would need to happen before these clubs would even think about making this trade. Atlanta would probably need to sign one of the top free agent starters such as Jon Lester (who they have been in contact with this week), Seattle would want to sign another heavy-hitting free agent such as Nelson Cruz or Hanley Ramirez and the Twins would need more confidence in who they have in the outfield.

Percent chance of this deal actually happening: 20%. This one is certainly a long-shot, but it’s always fun to dream up three-way trades. If a few dominoes start falling, who knows what could happen?