Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Minnesota Twins

After attending TwinsFest at Target Field this past weekend, one thing was made very clear: the 2015 Twins will be different.

I’m not saying they’ll be better.

I’m not saying they’ll be worse.

All I’m saying is that this team will be different from what Twins Territory has become accustomed to thanks to four years of rebuilding.

New threads for a new team

With a new manager taking the helm, some new faces on the field, new uniforms and a new mindset, these Twins are heading in a new direction.

With that said, here are two extreme directions that this organization can take this season. While it would be fun to run wild with these, I’ll try to keep it relatively realistic.

Here's to 2015 being the rainbow after a stormy four years

Best case scenario: In this world, the Twins get some lucky breaks from both their top prospects and their veteran players.

Starting with the rotation, Phil Hughes builds off of his stellar 2014 and earns Cy Young consideration. He continues to strike batters out and avoid walks at a historic rate, finishing the year with 20 wins, a 2.45 ERA, 210 innings pitched and 220 strikeouts.

Ricky Nolasco returns to form, avoiding injuries that caused him to miss time in 2014. His ceiling isn’t quite as high as Hughes’, so I would expect his best case scenario to be around a 3.65 ERA, 190 innings pitched and 150 strikeouts.

Ervin Santana, the most expensive free agent in the franchise’s history, lives up to the hype. Just as he did when he moved to the AL central division in 2013, Santana’s electric fastball and filthy slider leads him to another dominant season of 3.10 ERA baseball, with 200 strikeouts to boot.

Those three veterans, along with the emergence of prospect Alex Meyer and more improvement from Kyle Gibson give the Twins one of the better rotations in the league that is controllable for at least the next three years.

Phil Hughes: The Twins' new legitimate ace

The bullpen, headlined by All-Star closer Glen Perkins (who saves 44 games to the tune of a 2.30 ERA), is sound enough to protect leads deep into games, or cover if the rotation slips up. Breakout years from Casey Fien and Mike Pelfrey (who would be bumped off of the rotation) give the Twins a formidable late-inning trio similar to that of the Kansas City Royals.

Perk and his epic "neard"

Looking at the offense, Joe Mauer returns to the glory that Twins fans were used to seeing in the first nine years of his career. The first-baseman has a slash line of .332/.412/.445, leading the league in doubles.

The home run numbers increase for Torii Hunter (20), Brian Dozier (25) and Oswaldo Arcia (28), and we see even more pop from some of the young sluggers such as Kennys Vargas (18 HR), Josmil Pinto (.430 slugging percentage) and even Danny Santana (11 HR, 30 SB).

The biggest question mark heading into the season, who wins the center field job, is answered by Aaron Hicks. The former top prospect dominates in spring training, absorbs as much as he can from Hunter’s mentorship, and ultimately performs at the level that Twins fans have been expecting since he was selected in the first round in the 2008 draft.

Hicks nails down the center field job out of spring training, but ends up passing it along to star child Byron Buxton, who forces his way to the big league club midway through the season (late June, early July).

Byron "The Future" Buxton

Speaking of promotions, Miguel Sano makes his way to Target Field by late May. He starts the year in Triple-A Rochester, but his prodigious power causes Terry Ryan to unleash him earlier than expected, a move that immediately starts paying dividends. Sano wins rookie of the year, leading the league in HR from a rookie (32 HR).

Overall, the club sneaks its way into the wild card game, winning 88 games in the regular season.

Chills.

Worst case scenario: In this world, the team is plagued with injuries, mismanagement and underwhelming performances from key players.

In the rotation, Hughes can’t find the same success he had in 2014, regresses to the numbers that we saw from him when he was with the Yankees (4.19 ERA).

Nolasco struggles with another hampering injury and is shut down in the first half of the season.

Ervin Santana is seen as the biggest bust in team history, leading the league in HR allowed. He is later designated for assignment to give younger pitchers a shot in the starting rotation.

Alex Meyer doesn’t earn a promotion due to control issues and faulty mechanics, is later dropped from the top prospect list after the season.

The rest of the rotation puts up below replacement-level numbers just as they have for the last four seasons.

$50 million dud?

In the bullpen, Perkins is once again hindered by the same injury that shut him down in 2014. The other relievers are rarely given a lead, and blow it whenever they do.

On the offensive side, Mauer shows similar regression to last season, most likely due to another oblique strain and another increase in strikeouts. He finishes the season with a slash line of .265/.350/.363.

Key sluggers in the Twins’ lineup can’t seem to find their power stroke, causing them to finish near the bottom of the league in runs scored.

At least Joe won't have dandruff...

Vargas and Danny Santana both regress after their impressive rookie seasons, creating more question marks for an already tired roster.

Kurt Suzuki, an All-Star in 2014, fails to get on base at the rate that earned him his extension. Pinto takes over as primary catcher, but his offensive perks can’t make up for the defensive faults that allow more opposing base runners to score.

The centerfield situation is still a concern after spring training and Paul Molitor is forced to use some combination of Hicks and Jordan Schafer, who falter both defensively and have negative offensive value.

Poor Pelotero

Buxton and Sano both suffer more injuries while being seasoned in the minor leagues. Their major league debut is pushed back a year, yet again.

The Twins finish the season at the bottom of the standings with a record of 63-99. Ryan is fired and replaced by Bill Smith again, leading to another stretch of failed trades and highly-questionable draft choices a-la Levi Michael and Alex Wimmers.

On the next episode of draft busts...

Epilogue: Like I stated before, these are two very different directions that the Minnesota Twins could follow in 2015. In all likelihood, the team’s performance will fall somewhere between these two scenarios. At the very least, Twins Territory will get to see a team that is exciting, young and most of all, new.