2015 Spotlight: Miami Marlins

The youthful Marlins take a big step forward in 2015, thanks in part to franchise cornerstone, Giancarlo Stanton. The right fielder manages to stay healthy for the whole season, even after missing the last month of 2014 due to an ugly fastball to the cheekbone. I predict Stanton to be a clear MVP candidate who will be among the league leaders in homeruns (45) and RBI (120). 

I'm thinking about changing my name to Giancarlo Hennessy...

The pitching staff will hold their own, at least until the return of their once and future ace, Jose Fernandez, who is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Expect him to make his 2015 debut in mid-June. In the meantime, youngsters Jarred Cosart and Henderson Alvarez will lead the rotation, with the solid veteran presence of Mat Latos supporting them along the way.

Some call Fernandez the "Right-handed Kershaw"

Who to watch: The obvious answer would be Stanton. He is a once in a lifetime talent who keeps getting better as he heads in to the prime years of his career. I would also argue that second baseman Dee Gordon will put another solid campaign together after being traded from the Dodgers. As the leadoff hitter, Gordon should get on base at reasonable clip (.345 OBP), which, combined with his elite speed should lead to more than 100 runs scored.

The speedy infielder is looking to make a splash as a Marlin in 2015.

Sleeper: Outfielder Christian Yelich had a quietly superb 2014 campaign, earning a Gold Glove award for his defense in left field and accruing 3.6 wins WAR. He was above-average in most offensive categories and as a former top-prospect who is still only 23, one could reasonably expect him to keep building into a star-level player. I see him playing 150 games, finishing the season with a .285 batting average and swiping 25 bases. Look for Yelich to earn his second Gold Glove award, as well.

Yelich is a serious breakout candidate fro this year.

Bust: I am not huge fan of shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria. His defense is fairly strong, but his hampering on-base skills and streaky bat are cause for concern.  I don’t’ expect him to be one of the main contributors to an otherwise successful team.

Hechavarria or "Hack"avarria?

Bold prediction: Ichiro Suzuki somehow manages to find enough quality playing time to either:

A)     Accrue the 156 hits needed for him to reach the 300 mark.

Or

B)     Earn a contract extension with the intention of making the mark in 2016.

Tough not to root for the future Hall of Famer.

Sure, it seems like a long shot, but that's why this is a bold prediction.

2015 Spotlight: Washington Nationals

After adding Max Scherzer via free agency, the already spectacular starting rotation transformed to elite status. Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman round out what looks to be one of the most exciting pitching staffs in recent history. The offense picks up some slack with increased health from staples such as Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman and Wilson Ramos. 

Is Harper still the face of the franchise?

With continued success from Ian Desmond, Denard Span and Anthony Rendon, this lineup becomes a highly cohesive group of above-average players. The team accumulates more wins than any other team, finishing the regular season with a record of 96-76.

Who to watch: Draw a name from a hat. Virtually any member of the starting rotation has the potential to be superb, with the batting order looking similarly sharp. If Harper can prove that he is fully healthy for the majority of the season, then he would be my pick. Otherwise Scherzer should have similar success to what he has shown over the past two years.

Scherzer was all smiles after inking a $210 million contract.

Sleeper: Fister is bound to have another stellar season in what is considered to be his contract year, yet it seems as though many consider him to be the team’s No. 5 starter. Barring any injuries, I can see him surpassing 200 innings pitched with a sub 3.00 ERA.

Fister could find himself landing big money next offseason. 

Bust: Really tough to pick anyone on this roster to fall flat in 2015, but one player that I’m not quite sold on is Yunel Escobar. The Nats acquired him mostly for his defense and proven on-base abilities, but he doesn’t quite have the star-power that other members of this team have.

Sorry, Yunel, I had to pick someone...

Bold prediction: The Nationals send six players to the All-Star game in Cincinnati, more than any other club. Harper, Desmond and Rendon are all voted onto the starting roster, with Scherzer, Strasburg and Fister being selected to the pitching staff.

Every Rose Has Its Thorn

Baseball has a new good guy.

Or at least the prospect to be one.

On Jan. 25, Major League Baseball placed commissioner duties on the shoulders of Rob Manfred, a Harvard Law graduate and the driver of the committee that investigated the Biogenesis steroids scandal.

Not only that, but upon taking the helm as the chief decision-maker of our nation’s pastime, Manfred stated that he hopes to improve the pace of the game, embrace technology and create more youth outreach.

He made these proposals at his introduction ceremony.

His predecessor, old man Bud Selig, barely had his wrinkly behind out the door when hot-shot Manfred started making tidal waves right off the bat. Finally, somebody is trying to make baseball fun again.

Manfred looks as if he is going to make us an offer we cannot refuse...

This is a great start, but I have one concrete suggestion for the new commissioner: make Pete Rose eligible for the Hall of Fame.

For those of you who don’t know, Rose is baseball’s all-time hits leader with 4,256. That’s more than Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have combined.

He is currently banned from Major League Baseball for gambling on MLB games while he was playing and managing.

Should Rose have been punished for his actions? Absolutely.

Should he be shunned for the rest of his life? No way.

How could you say no to that mug?

The last time Rose was a member of the MLB community was 1989. That was 26 years ago. What, did he murder somebody?

There are probably criminals who have been sentenced 25 years to life in prison and granted their full pardon since the last time anyone saw Rose on a baseball field.

Come on, gambling does not warrant a life-sentence. Even if it did, Rose would be due reinstatement for good behavior.

Roses are red, bruises are blue, looks like this guy might have had a few.

Rose recently said that he would love to talk with Manfred about his potential reinstatement. He isn’t asking to be placed in the Hall of Fame, but rather to be become eligible to be voted in just like every other player.

"Let the writers decide. If they want me in, I’m in," Rose said in an interview with USA Today. "If they don’t feel I should be in, I can live with it."

Manfred even said that he would be open to the idea of allowing Rose to be on the ballot, but has yet to act on those words.

Does somebody need to beg him?

Does Princess Leia have to show up in a Cincinnati Reds jersey and say, "Help us, Commissioner Manfred. You’re our only hope…"

Princess Leia of Alderaan, huge Reds fan.

This is it, the chance to let a legend find his way home. He’s been wandering around in Hall of Fame purgatory for almost three decades.

Look, every rose has its thorn. That doesn’t mean you pluck it from the ground and forget it ever bloomed.

 

The Alex Meyer Dilemma

During a radio panel at TwinsFest last week, Twins’ general manager Terry Ryan said that the fifth spot in the starting rotation will be determined based on performance in spring training. He went on to say that Alex Meyer, No. 29 on the recently released Top 100 prospect list from MLB.com, has the “stuff” that Twins starters have been lacking for some time now.

The Twins No. 3 prospect

You might be wondering what exactly Ryan is alluding to when he refers to Meyer’s “stuff”.

What the GM was trying to say is that Meyer has an arsenal of strong pitches that has been deemed ace-caliber since he was drafted by the Washington Nationals in the first round of the 2011 draft.

Most notably, Meyer boasts a fastball that sits in the high 90s and has good movement on the tail end. He also has a plus-slider and an improving changeup, which should give him an ideal mix of options to keep batters off balance.

Future Ace?

The 6’9’’ right-hander has spent the last four years in the minor leagues with solid if not highly-impressive results, suggesting he has had more than enough seasoning to take another step forward.

This leads to a good problem for the Twins to have when the season starts. Do they:

A) Call Meyer up to the big league rotation, making him susceptible to a rough transition and giving the Twins one less year of team control.

B) Call Meyer up to the big league bullpen, allowing him to get somewhat of a feel for pitching to the best in the business without wearing him out.

C) Keep him in the Triple-A rotation until mid-season, giving Meyer extra seasoning and the Twins that extra year of team control.

Meyer made his Target Field debut in last year's Futures game. 

All of these options come with questions and concerns.

If he starts the year in the big-league rotation, as many fans are demanding, what happens if he is ineffective? What if his confidence is damaged from being unleashed to MLB hitting too early?

If he starts in the bullpen, which is already quite crowded, who do the Twins bump off? How will the team determine when it’s time to stretch him back into a starter?

If they send him back to the minors, what more will he have to prove before he can be called up? He already has shown great results and will be 25 years old next season.

Like I stated before, this is a good issue for a team to have. After all, he still has monster potential, he is still pretty healthy and the team will still have control for years to come. The only variable is when he should be unleashed.

Fun fact: Meyer doubles as a substitute teacher in the off season 

Many great starting pitchers have opened their big league careers in the bullpen. Some notable names in that category: David Price, Drew Smyly, Johan Santana and Jeff Samardzija (who didn’t become a regular starter until his fifth year with the big league club).

Also, fans shouldn’t get too worked up over the fact that Meyer is considered pretty old to still be a prospect. After all, the great Randy Johnson didn’t make his debut until he was 25, and he is headed to the Hall of Fame.

Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Minnesota Twins

After attending TwinsFest at Target Field this past weekend, one thing was made very clear: the 2015 Twins will be different.

I’m not saying they’ll be better.

I’m not saying they’ll be worse.

All I’m saying is that this team will be different from what Twins Territory has become accustomed to thanks to four years of rebuilding.

New threads for a new team

With a new manager taking the helm, some new faces on the field, new uniforms and a new mindset, these Twins are heading in a new direction.

With that said, here are two extreme directions that this organization can take this season. While it would be fun to run wild with these, I’ll try to keep it relatively realistic.

Here's to 2015 being the rainbow after a stormy four years

Best case scenario: In this world, the Twins get some lucky breaks from both their top prospects and their veteran players.

Starting with the rotation, Phil Hughes builds off of his stellar 2014 and earns Cy Young consideration. He continues to strike batters out and avoid walks at a historic rate, finishing the year with 20 wins, a 2.45 ERA, 210 innings pitched and 220 strikeouts.

Ricky Nolasco returns to form, avoiding injuries that caused him to miss time in 2014. His ceiling isn’t quite as high as Hughes’, so I would expect his best case scenario to be around a 3.65 ERA, 190 innings pitched and 150 strikeouts.

Ervin Santana, the most expensive free agent in the franchise’s history, lives up to the hype. Just as he did when he moved to the AL central division in 2013, Santana’s electric fastball and filthy slider leads him to another dominant season of 3.10 ERA baseball, with 200 strikeouts to boot.

Those three veterans, along with the emergence of prospect Alex Meyer and more improvement from Kyle Gibson give the Twins one of the better rotations in the league that is controllable for at least the next three years.

Phil Hughes: The Twins' new legitimate ace

The bullpen, headlined by All-Star closer Glen Perkins (who saves 44 games to the tune of a 2.30 ERA), is sound enough to protect leads deep into games, or cover if the rotation slips up. Breakout years from Casey Fien and Mike Pelfrey (who would be bumped off of the rotation) give the Twins a formidable late-inning trio similar to that of the Kansas City Royals.

Perk and his epic "neard"

Looking at the offense, Joe Mauer returns to the glory that Twins fans were used to seeing in the first nine years of his career. The first-baseman has a slash line of .332/.412/.445, leading the league in doubles.

The home run numbers increase for Torii Hunter (20), Brian Dozier (25) and Oswaldo Arcia (28), and we see even more pop from some of the young sluggers such as Kennys Vargas (18 HR), Josmil Pinto (.430 slugging percentage) and even Danny Santana (11 HR, 30 SB).

The biggest question mark heading into the season, who wins the center field job, is answered by Aaron Hicks. The former top prospect dominates in spring training, absorbs as much as he can from Hunter’s mentorship, and ultimately performs at the level that Twins fans have been expecting since he was selected in the first round in the 2008 draft.

Hicks nails down the center field job out of spring training, but ends up passing it along to star child Byron Buxton, who forces his way to the big league club midway through the season (late June, early July).

Byron "The Future" Buxton

Speaking of promotions, Miguel Sano makes his way to Target Field by late May. He starts the year in Triple-A Rochester, but his prodigious power causes Terry Ryan to unleash him earlier than expected, a move that immediately starts paying dividends. Sano wins rookie of the year, leading the league in HR from a rookie (32 HR).

Overall, the club sneaks its way into the wild card game, winning 88 games in the regular season.

Chills.

Worst case scenario: In this world, the team is plagued with injuries, mismanagement and underwhelming performances from key players.

In the rotation, Hughes can’t find the same success he had in 2014, regresses to the numbers that we saw from him when he was with the Yankees (4.19 ERA).

Nolasco struggles with another hampering injury and is shut down in the first half of the season.

Ervin Santana is seen as the biggest bust in team history, leading the league in HR allowed. He is later designated for assignment to give younger pitchers a shot in the starting rotation.

Alex Meyer doesn’t earn a promotion due to control issues and faulty mechanics, is later dropped from the top prospect list after the season.

The rest of the rotation puts up below replacement-level numbers just as they have for the last four seasons.

$50 million dud?

In the bullpen, Perkins is once again hindered by the same injury that shut him down in 2014. The other relievers are rarely given a lead, and blow it whenever they do.

On the offensive side, Mauer shows similar regression to last season, most likely due to another oblique strain and another increase in strikeouts. He finishes the season with a slash line of .265/.350/.363.

Key sluggers in the Twins’ lineup can’t seem to find their power stroke, causing them to finish near the bottom of the league in runs scored.

At least Joe won't have dandruff...

Vargas and Danny Santana both regress after their impressive rookie seasons, creating more question marks for an already tired roster.

Kurt Suzuki, an All-Star in 2014, fails to get on base at the rate that earned him his extension. Pinto takes over as primary catcher, but his offensive perks can’t make up for the defensive faults that allow more opposing base runners to score.

The centerfield situation is still a concern after spring training and Paul Molitor is forced to use some combination of Hicks and Jordan Schafer, who falter both defensively and have negative offensive value.

Poor Pelotero

Buxton and Sano both suffer more injuries while being seasoned in the minor leagues. Their major league debut is pushed back a year, yet again.

The Twins finish the season at the bottom of the standings with a record of 63-99. Ryan is fired and replaced by Bill Smith again, leading to another stretch of failed trades and highly-questionable draft choices a-la Levi Michael and Alex Wimmers.

On the next episode of draft busts...

Epilogue: Like I stated before, these are two very different directions that the Minnesota Twins could follow in 2015. In all likelihood, the team’s performance will fall somewhere between these two scenarios. At the very least, Twins Territory will get to see a team that is exciting, young and most of all, new.