Thursday, 20 November 2014

Possible Trade Scenarios for the Twins


Though trades are often a risky game to play when dealing with a rebuilding club, desperate times call for desperate measures.

If there is one team that is desperate for some electricity, it is the Minnesota Twins.

Twins' GM Terry Ryan might need to swing a trade or two to get more rings.
With that said, here are some possible trade scenarios that I would love to see along with the likelihood that they could be a fit for all parties.
 
1. Twins trade 3B Trevor Plouffe to the Toronto Blue Jays for SP Mark Buehrle.

Why I like this: The Twins tried hard for Buehrle when he was a free agent after the 2011 season. Though he ended up signing a four-year deal with the Marlins, he was eventually traded to the Jays as part of a blockbuster deal. With that contract coming to an end after next season, along with a surplus of starting pitching in the Toronto system, the durable left-hander could end up being the odd-man out.

Plooooouuuuuufffffe.
Plouffe, on the other hand, is still under control for three more years. The third baseman has turned into a solid slugger over the past few seasons and actually had a higher WAR (Wins Above Replacement) than Buehrle in 2014 (3.9 for Plouffe, 3.6 for Buehrle). With uber-prospect Miguel Sano on the cusp of taking over at third base for the long haul in Minnesota, now might be the perfect time to sell Plouffe while his value is still pretty high.

Why this trade might not work: Buehrle is owed a whopping $19 million for the 2015 season, which would surely be more than the Twins would are comfortable paying for the veteran starter. The only way this would work would be if the Jays pitched in some money to help pay the remaining salary. I would imagine the Twins wouldn’t want to pay Buehrle more than $11-13 million and there is no promise that Toronto would want to throw that much financial assistance in order to make the trade happen.

Hello, old friend...
Percent chance of this deal actually happening: 35%. Though it would address needs of both teams, the money would prove to be a pretty big obstacle.

2. Twins send RP Brian Duensing to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for OF Peter Bourjos.

Why I like this: Duensing has been solid out of the Twins’ bullpen over the past two years. Bourjos, though a toolsy player who deserves every day at bats, would probably be splitting time with a few other players in St. Louis next season.

As valuable as a reliable left-handed reliever might be, the Twins are in desperate need for a center fielder now that Danny Santana is making the move to shortstop. With an above-average bullpen already and more relief prospects on their way, Minnesota can afford to trade Duensing in an effort to address their biggest need.

The solid southpaw in action.
When I say their biggest need, I’m not just talking about their outfield. If the Twins had a center fielder with plus fielding skills (a-la Peter Bourjos) their pitchers would have considerably better numbers than they have posted over the past couple of seasons based on UZR ratings (runs saved above average). Bourjos ranks in the top 10 in defensive runs saved since the start of the 2010 season. His addition would lead to fewer opposing base runners, which would lead to fewer opposing runs scored, which would hopefully lead to fewer opposing team wins.

Why this trade might not work: The Cardinals are widely regarded as the most well-rounded team in baseball. They also have one of the better farm systems, meaning there is no urgent need for them to make a move this offseason. Their bullpen may be their weakest link, and even that is in pretty good shape.

Gorgeous Bourjos.
Duensing may be an improvement over their current middle-relievers, but there is no crucial need for him on this staff.

Percent chance of this deal actually happening: 75%. Both players are pretty superfluous for the future of each team, the money is fairly comparable and both teams might benefit from a minor shakeup.

3. Twins trade OF prospect Eddie Rosario, OF Aaron Hicks and RP Brian Duensing, receive SP Alex Wood and OF Michael Saunders.

Atlanta Braves trade Wood, OF Justin Upton, receive Rosario, Duensing and SP prospect James Paxton

Seattle Mariners trade Paxton and Saunders, receive Upton and Hicks.

Why I like this: After his excellent stretch in this year’s Arizona Fall League, Rosario’s stock has never been higher. If the Twins were to give him up along with a reliable southpaw reliever such as Duensing and a young speedster in Hicks, it could net them Wood, who has been stellar for the Braves over his first two seasons and is controlled for at least five more years. They would also net Saunders who seemed to finally find his groove in Seattle last year and is under team control for two more years.

Rosario, possibly the Twins' best trade chip.
Though Atlanta would be giving up their promising young pitcher and one of the game’s best hitters, they would be acquiring two top-prospects and a solid reliever to boot. They would also clear the money that would be owed to Upton.

Alex Wood, under control through the 2019 season.
Since Seattle is in win-now mode, they would get a power bat (Upton) to pair with Robinson Cano in the middle of their order and a former top-prospect who could use a change of scenery (Hicks). Hicks could also be a safety net in case Seattle can’t resign Upton or OF Austin Jackson, both of whom are set to hit free agency after next season.

Why this trade might not work: To put it simply, a lot of moves would need to happen before these clubs would even think about making this trade. Atlanta would probably need to sign one of the top free agent starters such as Jon Lester (who they have been in contact with this week), Seattle would want to sign another heavy-hitting free agent such as Nelson Cruz or Hanley Ramirez and the Twins would need more confidence in who they have in the outfield.

Percent chance of this deal actually happening: 20%. This one is certainly a long-shot, but it’s always fun to dream up three-way trades. If a few dominoes start falling, who knows what could happen?

Monday, 17 November 2014

Free Agency Targets for the Twins

The Minnesota Twins are in a very delicate stage of their development as they come off of their fourth consecutive season of 92 or more losses. Now that they have hired a new manager to captain their sinking ship, they need more deckhands to grab an ore.
With that said, here are my picks for who the Twins should target in free agency and how they would contribute to our rebuilding team.

Captain Molitor
Outfield
So far, Oswaldo Arcia is the only outfielder that the Twins have penciled into their 2015 roster. Though he has had some defensive trouble to start his career (ranked seventh-worst out of all outfielders in defensive wins above replacement last year), he could adapt as he gains more experience. One thing is certain - he needs regular at-bats if he is going to develop into the stud hitter that everybody wants him to be.

Oswaldo Ar-SEE-YA-LATER
As I wrote in a blog post a few weeks ago, Torii Hunter makes a lot of sense for the Twins. Not only would he bring a much-needed clubhouse presence, but he would add above-average offense at a stopgap position until some of the Twins’ highly-touted prospects are ready to take over.
With Hunter signed on to play right field on a one or two year deal worth around $9-10 million annually, Arcia could move over to left field where his defensive capabilities might actually suit him better.

Time to bring our friend home 
If the Twins want to think out of the box they should consider ponying up for Cuban-defector Yasmany Tomas. Though he would most likely require a huge contract, the powerful slugger would be yet another force in the middle of the Minnesota lineup for years to come.
Since he is only 24, Tomas might very well decide to seek a four or five year contract so that he can hit free agency in his prime. If this is the case, the Twins would be smart to offer a hefty contract worth somewhere around $60-65 million over four years. It would be the biggest free agent contract in franchise history, but considering Tomas’ upside (prodigious power) and a relatively manageable contract to trade if need be, this shouldn't be overlooked as a possibility.

Would look pretty good in a Twins uniform...
Just imagine a lineup in the not-too-distant future that looks like this:

Byron Buxton CF
Joe Mauer 1B
Miguel Sano 3B
Oswaldo Arcia RF
Yasmany Tomas LF
Kenny Vargas DH
Brian Dozier 2B
Josmil Pinto/Kurt Suzuki C
Danny Santana SS

In theory, that lineup looks stacked. Though some of these players still have a lot to prove before they can be penciled into an everyday role, their high ceiling gives hope for something like this happening relatively soon.

See you soon, young grasshoppers.
Starting Pitcher
Honestly, I don’t think the Twins are as desperate for pitching as everybody says they are. Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson and Trevor May should be locks to make the starting rotation barring any injuries or setbacks. Beyond that, Minnesota has Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone that can round out the group, but I understand the desire to find someone a little more appealing and reliable.

With that said, I would want the Twins to go after Brandon McCarthy, who had excellent peripheral numbers last year with the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees. If they offer him a contract worth $39 over three years with a mutual option for a fourth, that could be enough to net the sturdy right-hander.
Side note: McCarthy is one of the funniest players in baseball

The Twins don’t need any more stop-gap starters. They’re beyond the point of making underwhelming, though necessary signings a-la Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey. If they can’t get the guys they really want, then they should just let the high-upside prospects like May and Alex Meyer take over.

I would be more than comfortable with a rotation of:

Phil Hughes
Brandon McCarthy
Kyle Gibson
Trevor May
Ricky Nolasco/Tommy Milone/Alex Meyer

Note: My sources are calling the Twins the dark horse in the James Shields derby. I would probably be okay with this, but I’m not optimistic about anything happening given his connection to big-market bidders like the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox. If the Twins can land him, great. If not, no big deal.


Big Game James

So, as it stands right now, the Twins are looking at an opening day patrol of about $73 million before any free agent additions and after giving reasonable arbitration bumps for their seven qualified players. If the Twins’ owners are comfortable bumping up to $90-95 million, which has been a reasonable tab in recent years, then these signings could be in play.