Thursday, 26 March 2015

2015 Spotlight: Cincinnati Reds

America's oldest ball club started this offseason by trading away some of their starting pitcher surplus for some much-needed contributors to the team's ultimate future. With Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Alfredo Simon and Mat Latos all slated to become free agents following the 2015 season, Cincinnati decided to ship off the latter two for lineup depth and immediate monetary saving. The team also made a move to pick up outfielder Marlon Byrd from the Philadelphia Phillies, hopefully stabilizing the middle of a lineup that was quite shaky in 2014.
Votto-pilot.

The key to the Reds' success in 2015 will be a bounce back season from franchise cornerstone Joey Votto. He was hampered by injuries and inexplicable ineffectiveness in 2014, but the club is hoping that he can rediscover the offensive clip that landed him on four-straight All-Star rosters from 2010-2013. With his return, another Cy Young caliber season from Cueto and a strong supporting cast, the Reds could potentially prove that their time atop the division is not quite finished.

Who to watch: Besides Cueto and Votto, I expect young center fielder Billy Hamilton to put on a show in 2015. Last season, the speedster posted a decent .250 batting average and swiped a robust 56 bases, but didn't get on base as much as the club would have liked.
Hamilton: the running man.
If he can stack on a handful of walks to boost his 2015 on-base percentage,  he could be a dangerous offensive tool for this team
for years to come. He kind of reminds me of a young Michael Bourn but with even more speed.

Sleeper: Catcher Devin Mesoraco has emerged as an absolute force in the meaty part of this lineup. I think he will take another step forward in 2015, surpassing the 30 home run mark and tallying 90-100 RBI depending on who hits in front of him.
Expect big things from big-man Mesoraco
For example, say Votto has a bounce back season and gets on base at the gaudy rates that fans are used to seeing from him, that's could mean another 10-15 buns batted in for Mesoraco. Either way, I think he's still up for another stellar campaign.

Bust: Second baseman Brandon Phillips, while still serviceable, has seen his offensive production drop significantly in recent years. His OPS has decreased every season since 2011, as has his extra-base hits, leading many to believe that his glory days are behind him.
Phillips' glove isn't the issue...
At this rate, Phillips projects to contribute barely above replacement-level numbers. Though his defense is still plus, his bat is a very big question mark at the moment.

Bold prediction: Cueto is traded mid-season when the team starts to look as though they aren't headed towards a postseason berth. I could see the Dodgers, Red Sox, Marlins and even the White Sox being interested in his services when the July 31 trade deadline approaches.
From Cy Young contender to trade bait.
If the Reds are out of the playoff picture and aren't making progress on an extension with their ace pitcher, a trade for a solid, young player could make a lot of sense. They could even flip him mid-season then try to resign him in the offseason, as unlikely as that may sound. 

Monday, 23 March 2015

2015 Spotlight: Chicago Cubs

108 years. It has been 108 years since the last time the Cubs took home a World Series trophy. The team made a plethora of acquisitions this offseason in an effort to end that unsightly streak. One of the biggest changes came as a huge surprise, when the Cubs hired Joe Maddon to take the helm as manager after he opted out of his contract with the Tampa Bay Rays. Widely regarded as one of the smartest managers in the game, Maddon will hope to bring a postseason berth to a club oozing with top prospects and a few key hired guns brought in through trade and free agency.
Maddon has postseason on his mind.

First and foremost, the north-siders dropped $155 to sign ace Jon Lester to a six-year contract. Along with their new frontline starter, they acquired veteran catcher Miguel Montero from the Arizona Diamondbacks and outfielder Dexter Fowler from the Houston Astros via trade in order to have some stable veteran presence in the heart of a young, raw lineup. The team resigned starter Jason Hammel, outfielder Chris Denorfia and former-closer Jason Motte to boot. These new faces, along with the emergence of prodigal prospects Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Jorge Soler could very well make for a winning combination for the Cubs in the near future.

Who to watch: I love the projected combination atop the Cubs lineup consisting of Fowler, shortstop Starlin Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo. With the 2014 on-base clip that Fowler and Castro provide (.375 and .339, respectively), along with the slugging abilities in Rizzo (32 home runs, 28 doubles in 2014), this trio could produce a staggering amount of runs. 
Rizzo enjoyed a breakout season in 2014.
Not to mention uber-prospect Bryant is on the cusp of taking over the cleanup spot in this lineup for a long time. Once he enters the fold, this squad of young sluggers will be one of the best in baseball.

Sleeper: With all of the talk surrounding Bryant, Rizzo and Lester, many have left Soler off of their list of highly anticipated Cubs. He was a highly-touted Cuban prospect who put on a show in his small MLB stint at the end of last season. In 24 games, Soler hit .292 with five homeruns and 20 RBI. Sure, that’s a small sample size. 
Soler power.
Take this with a grain of salt, but if you were to stretch out that production over the course of a 162-game season, Soler would be on pace to hit 34 homeruns with 135 RBI. I’m not saying expect those numbers with a full season, I’m just telling you not to sleep on this stud.

Bust: While I think Montero is better than what the Cubs had in place at catcher, I’m not expecting anything special out of him. His bat has lost some pop over the years, and he isn’t getting any younger.
Miguel "Meh" Montero
I can see him hitting 12 homers, driving in 65-70 runs (depending on who is hitting in front of him) and playing mediocre defense. If that excites you, so be it. I’m just not thrilled.


Bold prediction: Come July, the Cubs will trade one of their young, high-upside infielders for another frontline starter to compliment Lester in the rotation. Say Castro puts out a good clip in the first half of the season, the Cubs should then flip him for somebody like Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies or Andrew Cashner of the San Diego Padres. 
Cole Hamels would be a great fit in Chicago. Or anywhere else...  

Either way, I think the Cubs will be very tempted to spend some of their expendable young talent.

Thursday, 19 March 2015

2015 Spotlight: St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals started their offseason with horrible news that no team should ever have to hear. Before the World Series had even started, Oscar Taveras sadly died in a tragic car accident in his hometown of Puerto Plata, Puerto Rico. That left the Cards with a gaping hole in right field and baseball fans everywhere with heavy hearts. While there is no replacing Taveras’ legacy, the team filled his former position with a marquee player in Jason Heyward. With elite defense, solid base-stealing abilities and just entering his prime years, Heyward could be in for a big season in St. Louis.

The rest of the starting lineup will include mainstays such as outfielder Matt Holliday and catcher Yadier Molina, along with infielder Matt Carpenter and first baseman Matt Adams, both looking to regain their successful strokes from their rookie seasons. If the team can put together a lineup that balances their power and speed in the rights way, they would certainly be in the discussion for best offense in the league. Their pitching staff, headlined by ace Adam Wainwright, is also a major strength, with their only real question mark being Carlos Martinez, a former top-prospect who boasts an electric fastball and a plus-breaking ball. If he can make a clean transition from the bullpen into the rotation, this team becomes all the more dangerous.
Who to watch: Heyward is the obvious choice since he is in his contract year, thus has more to prove. If he is able to stay healthy and display his prodigious offensive skills in addition to his superior glove, he could be in line for a $200 million contract when he hits free agency in the fall. 
Heyward is arguably the best defensive player in the game.
That may be a tall order, but Heyward has the raw skills and youth on his side. I could realistically see him batting .270 with 20+ home runs and 20 stolen bases if he plays a whole season. Increased power will come from playing fewer games at the cavernous Turner field in Atlanta.

Sleeper: Even with no obvious everyday position for him to handle, I think that outfielder Randal Grichuk will wind up breaking out this season. He’s young, talented and has an excellent minor league track record. He will most likely start the season either on the bench or in AAA, but if he can find his way into the lineup on a regular basis,
Is Grichuk ready for a full time-gig in the big leagues?
I think he will prove to the Cardinals that he is their center fielder of the future thanks to his mixture of speed and run producing abilities. Also, at only 22 years old, St. Louis may not be in any rush to throw him into the fold quite yet.

Bust: Carpenter was amazing in 2013. He was pretty good in 2014. 2015 might be the year he comes back to Earth. Sure, his position change from second base to third base may have cause a little bit of regression. But how about the fact that in the past two seasons he has only missed nine games total? That’s a lot of wear and tear on a body, and it showed with Carpenter in 2014. 
My take on Carpenter: good, not great.
If that trend continues, he may not perform to the All-Star level that many expect him to. Don’t get me wrong, I still think he is a good player, I’m just skeptical about his health and regression in speed (55 doubles in 2013, 33 in 2014).


Bold prediction: The Cardinals let Heyward walk after this season, even after parting with highly-touted starter Shelby Miller to acquire him. Many people believe that the Cardinals will do everything in their power to sign Heyward to an extension and keep him in their outfield for years to come. But when you look at their depth chart, they have multiple young outfield prospects on the way but not many pitchers. 
Price would look mighty fine in a Cardinals jersey...
Then, look at next season’s free agent class. It is loaded with ac-caliber pitchers such as David Price, Doug Fister and Johnny Cueto. If you ask me, I would say that the Cardinals should pay for pitching in the offseason and see what they have with their outfield prospects. 

Monday, 16 March 2015

2015 Spotlight: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates finally made it back into the realm of relevance over the past two years, with two straight seasons of heading to the postseason. The Bucs will look to make a third consecutive trip to the playoffs, with a few effective headliners and some new faces from both the free agent market and their stock of young prospects. Outfielder Andrew McCutchen, now a household name (well, at least in baseball houses like mine), is certainly in the discussion for best position player in the game. He will lead a group of young sluggers including fist baseman Pedro Avarez and hometown favorite, second baseman Neil Walker.
Cole was the No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft.
As far as the rotation goes, Gerrit Cole will try to finally establish himself as the club's' ace. Still only 24 years old, Cole has already shown success in parts of two seasons at the major league level (3.45 ERA, 2.5 WAR). If he can stay healthy and log a full season's worth of innings, he could find himself meriting an All-Star bid and even a few Cy Young votes. A.J. Burnett is ready to make his swan song after turning down far more money to pitch for the Phillies. If he and fellow-hurler Francisco Liriano can find their success from 2013, then this rotation can be pretty scary. Overall, the Pirates are one of the most well-rounded teams in the game thanks to their headlining players (McCutchen, Cole) and the versatility and depth in their system (ahem, Josh Harrison). Look for some fireworks at PNC park this season.

Who to watch: Like I said, McCutchen is one of the premier players in the game and he just keeps getting better. If it weren't for somebody name Mike Trout, I would say that he has the best tools in the game.
McCutchen is a local celebrity in Pittsburgh.
He is lethal at the plate (25 home runs, .314 batting average in 2014), dangerous when he gets on base (143 career stolen bases) and a spectacular representative of the game (regularly buys lunch for every table when he eats at a restaurant). To put it simply, this guy is just really fun to watch and he is good for the game of baseball.

Sleeper: Newly-signed infielder Jung-ho Kang, of the the top-billed players throughout his career in Japan, has awesome potential. Doubters may be hesitant about any hitter coming over from Japan, but I think Kang's raw power will turn some heads.
Kang brings power and bat-flips to Pittsburgh.
I think he will start out on the bench but will eventually be a mainstay at shortstop. I'm not saying he's going to be MVP or anything like that, but I expect him to turn in a quietly successful rookie season.

Bust: I'm not a huge fan of outfielder Starling Marte. Let me rephrase that, I am rooting for Marte, but I don't have a ton of faith in him. He has shown decent progress in his first three years in the bigs, but so many people are saying the Pirates outfield will be one of the best for a long time to come.
Dancing with the Starling
I just don't think he has warranted that praise quite yet. Call me when he drives in more runs and gets on base more.

Bold prediction: The Pirates will lead all teams in home runs in 2015. Even with other teams having more prototypical power hitters such as the Dodgers, White Sox and Tigers, the Bucs somehow find a way to have at least six players with double-digit home run totals. McCutchen could reach 30, as can Alvarez, with newer players such as Kang and top-prospect Gregory Polanco hitting 15-20. This well-rounded team could bring some fun back to Pittsburgh.
Pops. 
They will make Willie "Pops" Stargell proud.

Tuesday, 10 March 2015

2015 Spotlight: Philadelphia Phillies

One term comes to mind when summarizing the Phillies’ efforts this offseason: too little, too late. The organization should have sold off their expensive veteran players in the three seasons prior to this when it was becoming clear that this once-mighty east dynasty was running out of gas, or would at least require refueling. General Manager Ruben Amaro claimed that the team would win with its aging core members, even signing a few older players such as outfielder Marlon Byrd and pitcher A.J. Burnett last offseason.
Ryan Howard used to be a perennial MVP candidate. 
The inevitable happened, with franchise cornerstones such as first baseman Ryan Howard and catcher Carlos Ruiz both struggling through injuries and ineffectiveness. Second baseman Chase Utley still showed above-average productivity, but almost all of the other core members showed that the end was nigh. Management finally had a light bulb moment, pouncing at the opportunity to sell shortstop Jimmy Rollins and Byrd, but decided to hang onto their most expensive veterans when they should have been hosting a fire sale. In 2015, they will look to Utley, Howard and Ruiz to find the productivity from the prime of their careers, as unlikely as that may be.
Chooch.
Who to watch: Utley is the face of the franchise. He continues to show that he is one of the best second baseman in baseball even entering his age 36 season. He made his sixth All-Star game in 2014, posting healthy figures in batting average (.270), doubles (36) and games played (155). If he can stay healthy, I would expect to see another comparable season in 2015 from the fan-favorite. Look for him to get on base at a solid clip (.345), even if he doesn’t score as many runs due to the sluggers that will be hitting behind him.
Utley: the ray of hope in a dismal lineup.
Sleeper: Though reliever Ken Giles is currently penciled in as a set-up man to closer Jonathan Papelbon, he is certainly looking to be the Phillies’ closer of the future. In his rookie season in 2014, Giles made 44 appearances out of the bullpen and struck out 64 batters to the tune of a 1.18 ERA. Whether he is used as a setup man or closer in 2015, I could definitely see him throwing 60 innings, striking out 85 with a sub-2.00, even finding his way onto the All-Star roster.
Giles finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting.
Bust: I think that the team has put too much responsibility on the shoulders of third baseman Cody Asche. They are saying that he is going to take over first base duties once uber-prospect Maikel Franco makes his debut at third, but I don’t think he has earned an everyday spot in the lineup. Sure, Howard isn’t what he used to be, but he definitely has a much better track record that should indicate first base is his job to lose. Asche is a replacement level player (.2 WAR over the past two years combined). Why should anyone expect solid numbers from him at one of the premier spots in a lineup?
Asche-tray.

Bold prediction: This is a two-parter; outfielder Ben Revere leads the league in hits, earning an All-Star bid despite his lack of power, and Amaro is fired midseason. Revere led the NL in hits in 2014, so the All-Star bid should constitude the boldness of this prediction. The speedy center fielder is such a curious type of player. He has boasted healthy batting averages in every year since 2011, yet doesn't get on base as much as his managers would like (.324 lifetime OBP) and even with his elite speed he has only managed to accrue 44 doubles over the past four season. In essence, Revere has hit singes almost exclusively, and relied on his base stealing abilities to move himself into scoring opportunities that would be expected from a prototypical lead-off hitter. 2015 will be the season he gains fan popularity. 
Revere leads the majors in smiles per game..
 To be honest, Amaro is widely regarded as one of the worst GMs in the game. He should have been fired years ago,but his terrible decisions heading into this season will be the nail in his coffin. 

Wednesday, 4 March 2015

2015 Spotlight: Atlanta Braves

The Braves’ offense went through a fairly drastic overhaul this offseason, causing many to believe that the team could go into a full-on rebuild over the next year. Atlanta traded outfielders Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis for prospects and cash. Those three, along with first baseman Freddie Freeman, were the offensive core of the team. Now, Freeman will look to carry the load with a new set of hitters in the lineup. Newly-signed outfielder Nick Markakis, shortstop Andrelton Simmons and catching prospect Christian Bethancourt will look to contribute in 2015.
Simmons is known for his elite defensive skills. Will his bat improve in 2015?
The Braves have one of the youngest starting rotations in the game, with 27 year-old Mike Minor being the oldest of the group. He will look to have a bounce-back season after a rough 2014, as will Shelby Miller who was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Heyward. If those two stay on track, with Alex Wood and Julio Teheran both taking another step forward, the rotation easily becomes their biggest asset.
Teheran showing off his unorthodox pitching mechanics.
Who to watch: Freeman is an obvious draw, with his prodigious power potential and his consistent run production in the middle of the lineup. For the third consecutive year, the 25 year-old first baseman is a preseason breakout candidate. I am also intrigued by what I have seen from Wood. He shuffled between the bullpen and starting rotation last season while maintaining a 2.78 ERA and a healthy 3.8 strikeout/walk ratio. Now that he is penciled into the rotation to start the season, look for him to find similar success.
Wood was quietly one of the best pitchers in the league last season.
Sleeper: I’m going to go with any of the four former-closers that Atlanta signed over the offseason. This list consists of Jason Grilli, Jose Veras, Jim Johnson and Matt Capps. I think that one or multiple members of this group will stick in the bullpen as serviceable set-up men. None of them are signed to any lofty contracts (Grilli has the biggest salary at $4 million), so these contracts are pretty low-risk, leading many evaluators to overlook their potential.
Kenny Powers, is that you?
Bust: I would say Melvin (formerly B.J.) Upton is bound to struggle, but pretty much everybody is expecting it. Not to mention, he is currently sidelined with an injury so I’m not going to hit him while he’s down. Minor has some pretty heavy expectations on his shoulders after the team released fellow rotation regulars Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, not to mention I don’t see the star potential that many writers seem to find in him. Many see him as the ace of the rotation, but I don’t think he’s cut out for it.
Can Minor rediscover his 2013 form?

Bold prediction: Closer Craig Kimbrel places in the top-three for Cy Young in the NL. He is easily the most dominant closer, if not all-around pitcher, in the game. In the just over four years of service, Kimbrel has notched 476 strikeouts, 289innings pitched and 186 saves to the tune of a sterling 1.43 ERA.
Goosebumps.
 I predict his strikeout rate to go up, his ERA to go down and his award trophy to get a lot heavier after this season. 

Sunday, 1 March 2015

2015 Spotlight: New York Mets

The New York Mets may not be the most exciting team in baseball this year, but with their electric starting rotation and a few good breaks from key veterans, they could wind up being fairly competitive in the NL East. The team finished 2014 with a decent 79-83 record, leading them to sign right fielder Michael Cuddyer to a two-year deal on the very first day of free agency.
Fan-favorite and all-around good guy Michael Cuddyer.
Cuddy will look to spark some energy into the offense, which includes third baseman David Wright, first baseman Lucas Duda and fellow outfielder Curtis Granderson. Those three veterans will make up the meat of the batting order in 2015, as long as they stay healthy and productive. I project this team to have a final regular-season record of 83-79, taking a few steps forward but missing the playoffs once again.
Can the Grandy-man rediscover his stroke?
Who to watch: This is an easy one. The dynamic youngsters in the starting rotation, namely 2014 Rookie of the Year Jake deGrom and returning Ace Matt Harvey, should be pretty fun to watch due to their high strikeout/nine innings-pitched rate (9.2, 9.9 respectively).
Talk about a Dyamic Duo,,,
If deGrom builds on his award-winning 2014 and proves that he isn’t some fluke, and Harvey shows that he is more than fully recovered from his Tommy John surgery back in 2013, they create a pretty spectacular 1-2 punch in the front of the Mets’ rotation for years to come.
Sleeper: One of the best pitching prospects over the past two years has been Noah Syndergaard. After spending the last five years in the minors, the highly-touted right-hander is ready to make his mark on the big leagues. Though his 2014 numbers look underwhelming, he still posted healthy totals for strikeouts (145) and home runs allowed (11) for his 133 innings pitched. If he can avoid walking so many batters (43 in 2014), while still maintaining the strikeout numbers, then the Mets could have another young award-winning starter on their hands.
Syndergaard at the 2013 futures game.
Bust: There are two clear thorns in the side of this club: shortstop and relief pitching. Wilmer Flores is currently penciled in at short for opening day. This is the same Flores that has gathered negative offensive value over the last two years, meaning he was worse than an average replacement-level player. Since he isn’t really expected to be anything special, I’ll go ahead and say the entire bullpen will be a bust this year. There were plenty of relievers on this offseason’s free agent market, but the Mets decides to stand-pat with what they had. The two most notable names in their relief corps are Dillon Gee and Rule-5 draft pick Sean Gilmartin. Gee projects to be the long-reliever with Gilmartin probably handling mid-range duties. Bored yet?
Looks like that killer goatee couldn't keep Gee in the rotation...

Bold prediction: David Wright struggles through the entire season, falling to mediocrity for the rest of his career. I’ll be honest; I’ve never been a huge Wright fan. I think he had three really stellar years in the prime of his career, a couple of slightly above-average campaigns and the comfort of a major market to back him up. 
Something ain't right with Wright...
He has been pretty good over the past four-plus years. Not great, but certainly good. My bold predictions is that 2015 is the year where he comes crashing down.