Sunday, 5 April 2015

2015 Spotlight: San Diego Padres

When newly-minted General Manager A.J. Preller interviewed for the job last year, I’m sure the Padres’ brass asked him what he would do differently. Little did they know, he had a storm of trade scenarios brewing in his brain. The Friars revamped their outfield with the power-hitting trio of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and Justin Upton, all coming in via trade. They also swung deals for third baseman Will Middlebrooks and catcher Derek Norris.
Big Game Shields

Their pitching staff was fairly solid in 2014, with Tyson Ross having a career year in the rotation and Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy providing good production when healthy. They also resigned pitcher Josh Johnson, whose first season in San Diego was cut short due to Tommy John surgery. On top of those options, the Padres made a late splash in the free agent market by signing San Diego native James Shields to a four-year contract worth at least $75 million. Shields and the other new acquisitions will surely be the difference-makers in the division.

Who to watch: The team obviously invested a hefty amount in their new pickups.  The outfield, which was the thorn in the side of the 2014 Padres, has quickly become a potent mix of sluggers. I'm not saying they're going to be stellar, but they should be fun to watch at the very least. 
The Flyin' Friars.
With some good breaks and healthy amounts of playing time, they could certainly combine for 70 home runs and 250 RBI. As for Shields, moving to Petco Park, a pitcher’s paradise over the past few seasons, should help to reestablish the nickname “Big Game James” (not that it ever left).

Sleeper: A consistent strength of otherwise unexciting Padres teams in recent years has been the bullpen. They have taken guys with little or no experience and turned them into valuable commodities by sticking them in relief roles. 
Quakenbush looks like he brews moonshine in the off season. 
Behind closer Joaquin Benoit, San Diego has a stellar set-up man in Kevin Quakenbush, who debuted in 2014 to pitch 54.1 innings with 56 strikeouts. Besides having one of the best names in the game, I think Quakenbush will continue to grow and develop, eventually taking over the reins of closer.

Bust: If this team is trying to make the postseason as their free agent expenditures suggest, then they are going to have to do something about their infield. Middlebrooks, while serviceable, should not be the name that stands out, as it currently does. 
Stuck in the Middlebrooks.
Shortstop Alexi Amarista, second baseman Jedd Gyorko and first baseman Yonder Alonso round out what looks to be an island of misfit ball players. If the team is still in playoff contention come July, look for the front office to try and swing a trade for somebody along the lines of Chase Utley or Daniel Murphy.


Will these be front-shelf or clearance rack at the end of the season? 
Bold prediction: The outfield experiment of Upton, Myers and Kemp will either come through or implode completely. Upton is an exciting but extremely streaky hitter who is moving to a pitcher’s ballpark. Myers has barely more than a year of service time and missed most of 2014. 
Kemp is the shell of his former, MVP-worthy self. Does that sound like a lock for success to you? Sure, it’s probably worth taking a chance on, but that trio is far from perfect. 

Friday, 3 April 2015

2015 Spotlight: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers enter the 2015 as heavy favorites to win the division. Their elite front-end of the rotation and well-rounded lineup make for a team that looks like a lock to make deep postseason push. Obviously, that doesn’t mean that things can’t go wrong from now until October, but many teams envy the position that the Dodgers are currently in.
Outfielder Yasiel Puig headlines the offensive side of the team, with first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and newcomers Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick setting the table at the top of the lineup. With a strong veteran presence to get on base and big boppers knocking them in, this lineup could be filthy. 
Get ready for more Puig bat flips in 2015. 

As far as pitching goes, they have some guy named Clayton Kershaw winning MVP and Cy Young awards left and right. He even gave the rest of the league a four-week head start last year and still managed to take home both trophies. Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu (when he comes off of the disabled list) are also above-average strikeout machines at the top of the starting five. If this team puts it all together, it would be tough to bet against them as NL favorites.

Who to watch: Watch Kershaw whenever you can. He is the best pitcher of my generation and seems to improve every season. As the most dominant starter in baseball, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lead the league in ERA (2.15), strikeouts (255), wins (21) and jaws dropped (too many to count). 
No putting out the fire that is Kershaw.
Let me put it this way, would you pass up an opportunity to watch Pedro Martinez in his prime? How about Randy Johnson? Or what about Tom Glavine? Well Kershaw has a lower ERA than all three of those players when they were his age, and they were voted into the Hall of Fame last year. Don’t miss out, folks.

Sleeper: Top-prospect Joc Pederson has been named the everyday centerfielder by Manager Don Mattingly. Though he may have big shoes to fill after the team traded fan-favorite Matt Kemp over the offseason, Pederson is looking ready for the challenge. 
Pederson: the baby-face of the future.
He had a dominant slash line of .303/.435/.582 at the AAA level in 2014, and has a .367/.397/.750 line so far this spring. Those gaudy numbers indicate a young player on the cusp of stardom.

Bust: The weakest link on this team is the gaping, expensive hole in left field. Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier are pegged to earn a combined $39.4 million in 2015. Not only are they expensive, but neither can seem to stay healthy for the duration of the season. 
California's most expensive high-five.
The Dodgers already boast the highest payroll in baseball, but are willing to eat a substantial portion of that allowance in a trade for either player. Look for that to happen around the trade deadline in July if one or both start showing any sort of worth.

Another addition to the Kershaw's pile of trophies.

Bold prediction: Three different Dodgers bring home an award at the end of this season; Pederson for Rookie of the Year, Kershaw for Cy Young and Puig for MVP. The least likely of these three is Puig, in which case I would bet Kershaw could bring home that accolade on top of his Cy Young. One thing is certain, they should start looking for bigger trophy cases in Los Angeles. 

2015 Spotlight: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers head into 2015 with a roster in transition. While some of their older stars are on their way out (third baseman Aramis Ramirez), a new wave of youthful faces are making their mark on the NL Central. These young stars, headlined by all-star catcher Jonathan Lucroy, will be tasked with finding consistency in their production.
How far will the Brewers slid in 2015?

Their rotation, fronted by Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza, will need to increase their workload, as their bullpen is iffy beyond the closer and set-up roles. Francisco Rodriguez returns to his duties in the ninth inning, and Jonathan Broxton will set the table for him, but nobody stands out beyond that. The team’s success lies in the top of their lineup consisting of center fielder Carlos Gomez, Lucroy and right fielder Ryan Braun. If they can produce the runs they are capable of, and the rotation can pitch deep into games, then the team could make a strong push. The issue is that this team seemed to fall apart at the seams as 2014 wore on. Who’s to say that it won’t be more of the same this year?

Who to watch: Lucroy not only made a name for himself in Milwaukee, but the star-catcher accumulated more WAR than anybody in the league. His breakout 2014 campaign earned him fourth place in MVP voting and indicated that he is one of the most vital players in the game. 
Jonathan "Sweet Heart" Lucroy
His strong offensive numbers should carry over into this season, as should his notorious pitch-framing abilities. If the team can find a way to keep his legs fresh throughout the season, look for him to lead the team in most offensive categories. He and Gomez could combine for 40 home runs and 175 RBI.

Sleeper: The Brew Crew traded away veteran starter Yovani Gallardo in order to make room for top-prospect Jimmy Nelson. The young right-hander started 12 games at the major league level last season, and the team is hoping regular playing time will benefit the young hurler. 
Nelson has his eyes on a big season.
If he can improve his command while pitching deep into games, Nelson could become a strong force in their rotation for years to come. At age 25, he has had more than enough seasoning in the minors, so this could be the season he ties it all together.

Bust: Aramis Ramirez has had a great career and is known to be a phenomenal clubhouse presence. The only reason I would call him a bust this year is the fact that the team stated they will look to rest him at least two times per week in order to keep him off the disabled list in his final season before retirement. 
Ramirez announced that 2015 will be his final season.
While he may still be productive, you have to imagine it would be tough to call him a star player if he misses a third of the scheduled games. Not to mention, there is no guarantee that substantial rest will improve his depleting offensive numbers (15 homeruns, 66 RBI in 133 games in 2014).


Bold prediction: Shortstop Jean Segura, who seemingly fell off the map in 2014, regains his offensive numbers and establishes himself as a top-tier infielder. Sure, many predicted that Segura would regress in 2014 after seeing his late-2013 struggles. 
I think Segura will land on his feet in 2015.

But I think that his solid toolset of plus-speed, strong fielding abilities and base-stealing potential will bounce-back to above average production. The Brewers traded Zack Greinke for him, after all. They must have seen something of value in him. 

Thursday, 26 March 2015

2015 Spotlight: Cincinnati Reds

America's oldest ball club started this offseason by trading away some of their starting pitcher surplus for some much-needed contributors to the team's ultimate future. With Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Alfredo Simon and Mat Latos all slated to become free agents following the 2015 season, Cincinnati decided to ship off the latter two for lineup depth and immediate monetary saving. The team also made a move to pick up outfielder Marlon Byrd from the Philadelphia Phillies, hopefully stabilizing the middle of a lineup that was quite shaky in 2014.
Votto-pilot.

The key to the Reds' success in 2015 will be a bounce back season from franchise cornerstone Joey Votto. He was hampered by injuries and inexplicable ineffectiveness in 2014, but the club is hoping that he can rediscover the offensive clip that landed him on four-straight All-Star rosters from 2010-2013. With his return, another Cy Young caliber season from Cueto and a strong supporting cast, the Reds could potentially prove that their time atop the division is not quite finished.

Who to watch: Besides Cueto and Votto, I expect young center fielder Billy Hamilton to put on a show in 2015. Last season, the speedster posted a decent .250 batting average and swiped a robust 56 bases, but didn't get on base as much as the club would have liked.
Hamilton: the running man.
If he can stack on a handful of walks to boost his 2015 on-base percentage,  he could be a dangerous offensive tool for this team
for years to come. He kind of reminds me of a young Michael Bourn but with even more speed.

Sleeper: Catcher Devin Mesoraco has emerged as an absolute force in the meaty part of this lineup. I think he will take another step forward in 2015, surpassing the 30 home run mark and tallying 90-100 RBI depending on who hits in front of him.
Expect big things from big-man Mesoraco
For example, say Votto has a bounce back season and gets on base at the gaudy rates that fans are used to seeing from him, that's could mean another 10-15 buns batted in for Mesoraco. Either way, I think he's still up for another stellar campaign.

Bust: Second baseman Brandon Phillips, while still serviceable, has seen his offensive production drop significantly in recent years. His OPS has decreased every season since 2011, as has his extra-base hits, leading many to believe that his glory days are behind him.
Phillips' glove isn't the issue...
At this rate, Phillips projects to contribute barely above replacement-level numbers. Though his defense is still plus, his bat is a very big question mark at the moment.

Bold prediction: Cueto is traded mid-season when the team starts to look as though they aren't headed towards a postseason berth. I could see the Dodgers, Red Sox, Marlins and even the White Sox being interested in his services when the July 31 trade deadline approaches.
From Cy Young contender to trade bait.
If the Reds are out of the playoff picture and aren't making progress on an extension with their ace pitcher, a trade for a solid, young player could make a lot of sense. They could even flip him mid-season then try to resign him in the offseason, as unlikely as that may sound. 

Monday, 23 March 2015

2015 Spotlight: Chicago Cubs

108 years. It has been 108 years since the last time the Cubs took home a World Series trophy. The team made a plethora of acquisitions this offseason in an effort to end that unsightly streak. One of the biggest changes came as a huge surprise, when the Cubs hired Joe Maddon to take the helm as manager after he opted out of his contract with the Tampa Bay Rays. Widely regarded as one of the smartest managers in the game, Maddon will hope to bring a postseason berth to a club oozing with top prospects and a few key hired guns brought in through trade and free agency.
Maddon has postseason on his mind.

First and foremost, the north-siders dropped $155 to sign ace Jon Lester to a six-year contract. Along with their new frontline starter, they acquired veteran catcher Miguel Montero from the Arizona Diamondbacks and outfielder Dexter Fowler from the Houston Astros via trade in order to have some stable veteran presence in the heart of a young, raw lineup. The team resigned starter Jason Hammel, outfielder Chris Denorfia and former-closer Jason Motte to boot. These new faces, along with the emergence of prodigal prospects Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Jorge Soler could very well make for a winning combination for the Cubs in the near future.

Who to watch: I love the projected combination atop the Cubs lineup consisting of Fowler, shortstop Starlin Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo. With the 2014 on-base clip that Fowler and Castro provide (.375 and .339, respectively), along with the slugging abilities in Rizzo (32 home runs, 28 doubles in 2014), this trio could produce a staggering amount of runs. 
Rizzo enjoyed a breakout season in 2014.
Not to mention uber-prospect Bryant is on the cusp of taking over the cleanup spot in this lineup for a long time. Once he enters the fold, this squad of young sluggers will be one of the best in baseball.

Sleeper: With all of the talk surrounding Bryant, Rizzo and Lester, many have left Soler off of their list of highly anticipated Cubs. He was a highly-touted Cuban prospect who put on a show in his small MLB stint at the end of last season. In 24 games, Soler hit .292 with five homeruns and 20 RBI. Sure, that’s a small sample size. 
Soler power.
Take this with a grain of salt, but if you were to stretch out that production over the course of a 162-game season, Soler would be on pace to hit 34 homeruns with 135 RBI. I’m not saying expect those numbers with a full season, I’m just telling you not to sleep on this stud.

Bust: While I think Montero is better than what the Cubs had in place at catcher, I’m not expecting anything special out of him. His bat has lost some pop over the years, and he isn’t getting any younger.
Miguel "Meh" Montero
I can see him hitting 12 homers, driving in 65-70 runs (depending on who is hitting in front of him) and playing mediocre defense. If that excites you, so be it. I’m just not thrilled.


Bold prediction: Come July, the Cubs will trade one of their young, high-upside infielders for another frontline starter to compliment Lester in the rotation. Say Castro puts out a good clip in the first half of the season, the Cubs should then flip him for somebody like Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies or Andrew Cashner of the San Diego Padres. 
Cole Hamels would be a great fit in Chicago. Or anywhere else...  

Either way, I think the Cubs will be very tempted to spend some of their expendable young talent.

Thursday, 19 March 2015

2015 Spotlight: St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals started their offseason with horrible news that no team should ever have to hear. Before the World Series had even started, Oscar Taveras sadly died in a tragic car accident in his hometown of Puerto Plata, Puerto Rico. That left the Cards with a gaping hole in right field and baseball fans everywhere with heavy hearts. While there is no replacing Taveras’ legacy, the team filled his former position with a marquee player in Jason Heyward. With elite defense, solid base-stealing abilities and just entering his prime years, Heyward could be in for a big season in St. Louis.

The rest of the starting lineup will include mainstays such as outfielder Matt Holliday and catcher Yadier Molina, along with infielder Matt Carpenter and first baseman Matt Adams, both looking to regain their successful strokes from their rookie seasons. If the team can put together a lineup that balances their power and speed in the rights way, they would certainly be in the discussion for best offense in the league. Their pitching staff, headlined by ace Adam Wainwright, is also a major strength, with their only real question mark being Carlos Martinez, a former top-prospect who boasts an electric fastball and a plus-breaking ball. If he can make a clean transition from the bullpen into the rotation, this team becomes all the more dangerous.
Who to watch: Heyward is the obvious choice since he is in his contract year, thus has more to prove. If he is able to stay healthy and display his prodigious offensive skills in addition to his superior glove, he could be in line for a $200 million contract when he hits free agency in the fall. 
Heyward is arguably the best defensive player in the game.
That may be a tall order, but Heyward has the raw skills and youth on his side. I could realistically see him batting .270 with 20+ home runs and 20 stolen bases if he plays a whole season. Increased power will come from playing fewer games at the cavernous Turner field in Atlanta.

Sleeper: Even with no obvious everyday position for him to handle, I think that outfielder Randal Grichuk will wind up breaking out this season. He’s young, talented and has an excellent minor league track record. He will most likely start the season either on the bench or in AAA, but if he can find his way into the lineup on a regular basis,
Is Grichuk ready for a full time-gig in the big leagues?
I think he will prove to the Cardinals that he is their center fielder of the future thanks to his mixture of speed and run producing abilities. Also, at only 22 years old, St. Louis may not be in any rush to throw him into the fold quite yet.

Bust: Carpenter was amazing in 2013. He was pretty good in 2014. 2015 might be the year he comes back to Earth. Sure, his position change from second base to third base may have cause a little bit of regression. But how about the fact that in the past two seasons he has only missed nine games total? That’s a lot of wear and tear on a body, and it showed with Carpenter in 2014. 
My take on Carpenter: good, not great.
If that trend continues, he may not perform to the All-Star level that many expect him to. Don’t get me wrong, I still think he is a good player, I’m just skeptical about his health and regression in speed (55 doubles in 2013, 33 in 2014).


Bold prediction: The Cardinals let Heyward walk after this season, even after parting with highly-touted starter Shelby Miller to acquire him. Many people believe that the Cardinals will do everything in their power to sign Heyward to an extension and keep him in their outfield for years to come. But when you look at their depth chart, they have multiple young outfield prospects on the way but not many pitchers. 
Price would look mighty fine in a Cardinals jersey...
Then, look at next season’s free agent class. It is loaded with ac-caliber pitchers such as David Price, Doug Fister and Johnny Cueto. If you ask me, I would say that the Cardinals should pay for pitching in the offseason and see what they have with their outfield prospects. 

Monday, 16 March 2015

2015 Spotlight: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates finally made it back into the realm of relevance over the past two years, with two straight seasons of heading to the postseason. The Bucs will look to make a third consecutive trip to the playoffs, with a few effective headliners and some new faces from both the free agent market and their stock of young prospects. Outfielder Andrew McCutchen, now a household name (well, at least in baseball houses like mine), is certainly in the discussion for best position player in the game. He will lead a group of young sluggers including fist baseman Pedro Avarez and hometown favorite, second baseman Neil Walker.
Cole was the No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft.
As far as the rotation goes, Gerrit Cole will try to finally establish himself as the club's' ace. Still only 24 years old, Cole has already shown success in parts of two seasons at the major league level (3.45 ERA, 2.5 WAR). If he can stay healthy and log a full season's worth of innings, he could find himself meriting an All-Star bid and even a few Cy Young votes. A.J. Burnett is ready to make his swan song after turning down far more money to pitch for the Phillies. If he and fellow-hurler Francisco Liriano can find their success from 2013, then this rotation can be pretty scary. Overall, the Pirates are one of the most well-rounded teams in the game thanks to their headlining players (McCutchen, Cole) and the versatility and depth in their system (ahem, Josh Harrison). Look for some fireworks at PNC park this season.

Who to watch: Like I said, McCutchen is one of the premier players in the game and he just keeps getting better. If it weren't for somebody name Mike Trout, I would say that he has the best tools in the game.
McCutchen is a local celebrity in Pittsburgh.
He is lethal at the plate (25 home runs, .314 batting average in 2014), dangerous when he gets on base (143 career stolen bases) and a spectacular representative of the game (regularly buys lunch for every table when he eats at a restaurant). To put it simply, this guy is just really fun to watch and he is good for the game of baseball.

Sleeper: Newly-signed infielder Jung-ho Kang, of the the top-billed players throughout his career in Japan, has awesome potential. Doubters may be hesitant about any hitter coming over from Japan, but I think Kang's raw power will turn some heads.
Kang brings power and bat-flips to Pittsburgh.
I think he will start out on the bench but will eventually be a mainstay at shortstop. I'm not saying he's going to be MVP or anything like that, but I expect him to turn in a quietly successful rookie season.

Bust: I'm not a huge fan of outfielder Starling Marte. Let me rephrase that, I am rooting for Marte, but I don't have a ton of faith in him. He has shown decent progress in his first three years in the bigs, but so many people are saying the Pirates outfield will be one of the best for a long time to come.
Dancing with the Starling
I just don't think he has warranted that praise quite yet. Call me when he drives in more runs and gets on base more.

Bold prediction: The Pirates will lead all teams in home runs in 2015. Even with other teams having more prototypical power hitters such as the Dodgers, White Sox and Tigers, the Bucs somehow find a way to have at least six players with double-digit home run totals. McCutchen could reach 30, as can Alvarez, with newer players such as Kang and top-prospect Gregory Polanco hitting 15-20. This well-rounded team could bring some fun back to Pittsburgh.
Pops. 
They will make Willie "Pops" Stargell proud.